fix: suppress notifications on alert de-escalation (e.g. CRITICAL→WARNING)

Only notify on worsening transitions (OK→WARNING, OK→CRITICAL,
WARNING→CRITICAL) and recovery (any→OK). De-escalation within alert
states no longer sends a duplicate notification since the metric never
recovered.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

hbd/server/threshold.py

@@ -1114,7 +1114,9 @@ class ThresholdChecker:
     ) -> None:
         """Handle a state-change transition with grace-period logic.
 
-        Transitioning INTO alert: defers the notification for grace_seconds.
+        Transitioning INTO alert (worsening): defers the notification for grace_seconds.
+        De-escalation within alert states (e.g. CRITICAL→WARNING): no new notification;
+          the metric is still alerting so no RECOVER was sent.
         Transitioning TO OK:
           - Still in grace window (pending_since set): suppresses both the alert
             and the recovery — the spike never warranted a page.
@@ -1134,12 +1136,20 @@ class ThresholdChecker:
                 alert_state.pending_since = None
             else:
                 self._send_notification(host_name, lvl, message, metric_path, old_level, new_level, value)
-        else:
+        elif new_level.value > old_level.value:
+            # Worsening (OK→WARNING, OK→CRITICAL, WARNING→CRITICAL): schedule notification.
             alert_state.pending_since = time.time()
             logger.debug(
                 "Alert deferred (%.0fs grace): %s on %s = %s",
                 self.grace_seconds, metric_path, host_name, value,
             )
+        else:
+            # De-escalation within alert states (e.g. CRITICAL→WARNING): metric is still
+            # alerting but did not recover, so no new notification.
+            logger.debug(
+                "De-escalation %s→%s for %s on %s, no notification",
+                old_level.name, new_level.name, metric_path, host_name,
+            )
 
     def _check_pending_or_renotify(
         self,